Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Fram vs Sarpsborg 08 II

Fram vs Sarpsborg 08 II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Fram

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarpsborg 08 II

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.6%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.7%1-19.0%1-27.1%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.7%3-15.8%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 31.0% — — —

Over 2.5 64.3% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram2.0

Sarpsborg 08 II1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM · PPG 0.86

SARPSBORG 08 II · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fram (H) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sarpsborg 08 II (A) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram face Sarpsborg 08 II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Sarpsborg 08 II 31%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fram and 1.6 for Sarpsborg 08 II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.38 for Sarpsborg 08 II.

Fram vs Sarpsborg 08 II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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