Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Lyn II vs Sandefjord II

Lyn II vs Sandefjord II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Lyn II

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sandefjord II

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.4%1-14.7%1-24.4%1-32.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.5%2-16.6%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.3%3-26.0%3-33.8%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-19.1%4+-28.7%4+-35.5%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Draw 17.8% 22.2% 4.50 -11.9%

Away win 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Over 2.5 77.4% 83.3% 1.20 -7.1%

Over 3.5 56.6% 69.9% 1.43 -19.1%

BTTS 69.7% 84.0% 1.19 -17.1%

Home O1.5 76.2% 79.4% 1.26 -4.0%

Away O1.5 58.3% 57.8% 1.73 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.7%

H 55% / xG 2.9-1.9 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.6%

#2 3–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyn II2.9

Sandefjord II1.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LYN II · PPG 1.75

SANDEFJORD II · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lyn II (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.2%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.9%

Sandefjord II (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyn II face Sandefjord II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyn II a 55% chance, the draw 18% and Sandefjord II 28%, so Lyn II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Lyn II and 1.9 for Sandefjord II (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyn II are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Sandefjord II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 4-3.

Lyn II vs Sandefjord II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions