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Roskilde vs VSK Århus Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Roskilde

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

UPCOMING

VSK Århus

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.8%0-27.8%0-33.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.9%2-17.1%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 45.5% 2.20 -33.8%

Draw 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -12.4%

Away win 44.4% 36.4% 2.75 +22.1%

Over 2.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 31.2% 50.0% 2.00 -37.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Roskilde1.1

VSK Århus1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSKILDE · PPG 1.41

VSK ÅRHUS · PPG 1.81

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Roskilde (H) 30.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -33.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.4%

VSK Århus (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Roskilde face VSK Århus in Denmark - 2. Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Roskilde a 30% chance, the draw 26% and VSK Århus 44%, so VSK Århus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Roskilde and 1.5 for VSK Århus (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Roskilde are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.81 for VSK Århus. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Roskilde vs VSK Århus Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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