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Naestved vs VSK Århus Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Naestved

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

VSK Århus

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.9%0-27.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.8%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-17.6%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 47.6% 2.10 -33.4%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 41.7% 34.5% 2.90 +20.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 47.6% 2.10 -32.0%

Away O1.5 39.7% 40.0% 2.50 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naestved1.2

VSK Århus1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NAESTVED · PPG 1.38

VSK ÅRHUS · PPG 1.61

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naestved (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -33.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

VSK Århus (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naestved face VSK Århus in Denmark - 2. Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naestved a 32% chance, the draw 27% and VSK Århus 42%, so VSK Århus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Naestved and 1.3 for VSK Århus (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naestved are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.61 for VSK Århus. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Naestved vs VSK Århus Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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