Today / Denmark - 2. Division / Middelfart vs Fremad Amager

Middelfart vs Fremad Amager Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Middelfart

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

UPCOMING

Fremad Amager

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.6%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.4%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-15.9%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 57.1% 1.75 -18.4%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 29.4% 27.0% 3.70 +5.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 59.9% 1.67 +1.5%

Over 3.5 37.6% 38.2% 2.62 -1.5%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.5% 1.68 -6.3%

Away O1.5 38.3% 36.8% 2.72 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middelfart1.8

Fremad Amager1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDELFART · PPG 1.69

FREMAD AMAGER · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Middelfart (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -18.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Fremad Amager (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Middelfart face Fremad Amager in Denmark - 2. Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middelfart a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Fremad Amager 29%, so Middelfart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Middelfart and 1.3 for Fremad Amager (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middelfart are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.39 for Fremad Amager. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Middelfart vs Fremad Amager Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 2. Division Predictions