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Skive vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Skive

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Naestved

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.3%0-25.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.8%1-112.5%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.4%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 38.2% 2.62 +0.6%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 34.9% 40.8% 2.45 -14.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 30.3% 30.8% 3.25 -1.5%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skive1.3

Naestved1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SKIVE · PPG 0.75

NAESTVED · PPG 1.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skive (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +0.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Naestved (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skive face Naestved in Denmark - 2. Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skive a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Naestved 35%, so Skive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Skive and 1.3 for Naestved (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skive are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.85 for Naestved. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Skive vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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