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Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Fremad Amager

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Thisted FC

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.6%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-111.9%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 51.3% 1.95 +1.2%

Draw 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Away win 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 46.6% 50.0% 2.00 -6.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremad Amager1.6

Thisted FC0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMAD AMAGER · PPG 1.58

THISTED FC · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fremad Amager (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +1.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Thisted FC (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremad Amager face Thisted FC in Denmark - 2. Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremad Amager a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Thisted FC 23%, so Fremad Amager are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fremad Amager and 0.9 for Thisted FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremad Amager are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.13 for Thisted FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Fremad Amager vs Thisted FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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