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Thisted FC vs Skive Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Thisted FC

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Skive

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.0%0-26.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.0%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 38.2% 2.62 -9.1%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Away win 41.3% 43.5% 2.30 -5.0%

Over 2.5 58.7% 57.8% 1.73 +1.6%

Over 3.5 36.1% 36.4% 2.75 -0.7%

BTTS 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 42.0% 2.38 -10.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1✓ 9.0%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thisted FC1.3

Skive1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

THISTED FC · PPG 1.18

SKIVE · PPG 1.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thisted FC (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -9.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Skive (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thisted FC face Skive in Denmark - 2. Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thisted FC a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Skive 41%, so Skive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thisted FC and 1.4 for Skive (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thisted FC are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.65 for Skive. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Thisted FC vs Skive Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 2. Division Predictions