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VSK Århus vs Thisted FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:30

VSK Århus

PPG 1.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thisted FC

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.5%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Draw 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

Away win 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 48.3% 57.1% 1.75 -15.5%

Home O1.5 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

Away O1.5 19.9% 36.4% 2.75 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.3%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VSK Århus1.8

Thisted FC0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VSK ÅRHUS · PPG 1.65

THISTED FC · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

VSK Århus (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.1%

Thisted FC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

VSK Århus face Thisted FC in Denmark - 2. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VSK Århus a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Thisted FC 22%, so VSK Århus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for VSK Århus and 0.8 for Thisted FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VSK Århus are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.32 for Thisted FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

VSK Århus vs Thisted FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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