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Boden vs Gottne Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Boden

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gottne

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.0%0-25.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.0%1-110.8%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 34.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boden1.6

Gottne1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BODEN · PPG 1.57

GOTTNE · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boden (H) 42.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gottne (A) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Boden face Gottne in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boden a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Gottne 34%, so Boden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Boden and 1.5 for Gottne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boden are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.71 for Gottne.

Boden vs Gottne Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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