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Österlen vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Österlen

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

UPCOMING

Karlshamn

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.8%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 63.3% 1.58 -12.3%

Draw 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Away win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 72.5% 1.38 -12.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.5% 1.98 -20.4%

BTTS 58.7% 65.4% 1.53 -10.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 28.6% 39.7% 2.52 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Österlen2.2

Karlshamn1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ÖSTERLEN · PPG 1.33

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Österlen (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -12.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Karlshamn (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Österlen face Karlshamn in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Österlen a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Karlshamn 23%, so Österlen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Österlen and 1.0 for Karlshamn (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Österlen are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Karlshamn.

Österlen vs Karlshamn Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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