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Warta Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Warta Gorzów

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Górnik Polkowice

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+18.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.2%0-23.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.3%1-16.7%1-26.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.5%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.5%3-15.1%3-25.2%3-33.5%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.4%4+-24.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 38.5% 2.60 +10.0%

Draw 21.0% 27.8% 3.60 -14.6%

Away win 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% 60.6% 1.65 +18.5%

Over 3.5 50.4% 39.1% 2.56 +29.0%

BTTS 69.1% 65.8% 1.52 +5.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 45.7% 2.19 +30.5%

Away O1.5 55.2% 50.5% 1.98 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Gorzów2.1

Górnik Polkowice2.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA GORZÓW · PPG 1.80

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Warta Gorzów (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +10.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.6%

Górnik Polkowice (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Gorzów face Górnik Polkowice in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Gorzów a 42% chance, the draw 21% and Górnik Polkowice 37%, so Warta Gorzów are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Warta Gorzów and 2.0 for Górnik Polkowice (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Gorzów are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.46 for Górnik Polkowice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Warta Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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