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Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Avispa Fukuoka

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Mito Hollyhock

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+26.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.9%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.0%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.3%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 50.0% 2.00 -21.8%

Draw 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Away win 36.9% 26.7% 3.75 +38.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 48.8% 2.05 +26.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 27.0% 3.70 +48.7%

BTTS 61.5% 54.6% 1.83 +12.6%

Home O1.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 30.3% 3.30 +39.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avispa Fukuoka1.6

Mito Hollyhock1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AVISPA FUKUOKA · PPG 1.07

MITO HOLLYHOCK · PPG 0.99

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avispa Fukuoka (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -21.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Mito Hollyhock (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avispa Fukuoka face Mito Hollyhock in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Mito Hollyhock 37%, so Avispa Fukuoka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.4 for Mito Hollyhock (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avispa Fukuoka are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.99 for Mito Hollyhock. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +56.8%.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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