Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Srbij vs M. Victory B

Melbourne Srbij vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 08:00

Melbourne Srbij

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

M. Victory B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.7%0-25.9%0-34.9%0-4+5.5%1 1-02.8%1-17.0%1-28.7%1-37.2%1-4+8.1%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.4%2-35.3%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.1%3-32.6%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -26.2%

Draw 18.6% 23.8% 4.20 -21.9%

Away win 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 2.5 75.6% 71.4% 1.40 +5.8%

Over 3.5 55.8% — — —

BTTS 70.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob70.7%

A 60% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–3 7.2%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Srbij1.5

M. Victory B2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE SRBIJ · PPG 1.00

M. VICTORY B · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

73%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Srbij (H) 21.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.2%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.9%

M. Victory B (A) 59.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Srbij face M. Victory B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Srbij a 22% chance, the draw 19% and M. Victory B 60%, so M. Victory B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Melbourne Srbij and 2.5 for M. Victory B (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Srbij are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for M. Victory B. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Melbourne Srbij vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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