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CD Arabe Unido vs Sporting San Miguelito Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 01:30

CD Arabe Unido

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sporting San Miguelito

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.1%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.9%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 42.0% 2.38 -10.5%

Draw 33.3% 33.8% 2.96 -1.4%

Away win 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Over 2.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

Over 3.5 18.3% 22.2% 4.50 -10.6%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

Away O1.5 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0✓ 14.8%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Arabe Unido1.0

Sporting San Miguelito0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CD ARABE UNIDO · PPG 1.50

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CD Arabe Unido (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -1.4%

Sporting San Miguelito (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Arabe Unido face Sporting San Miguelito in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Arabe Unido a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Sporting San Miguelito 29%, so CD Arabe Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CD Arabe Unido and 0.9 for Sporting San Miguelito (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Arabe Unido are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Sporting San Miguelito. This match finished 1-0.

CD Arabe Unido vs Sporting San Miguelito Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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