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Olancho vs Juticalpa Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 01:30

Olancho

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Juticalpa

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-19.0%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.1%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-16.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 78.1% 1.28 -19.4%

Draw 21.6% 20.0% 5.00 +4.8%

Away win 15.4% 12.1% 8.25 +16.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 67.6% 1.48 -20.2%

Over 3.5 34.0% 45.5% 2.20 -25.2%

BTTS 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 76.9% 1.30 -15.4%

Away O1.5 22.7% 23.8% 4.20 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olancho2.2

Juticalpa0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLANCHO · PPG 1.61

JUTICALPA · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olancho (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -19.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.8%

Juticalpa (A) 15.4%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olancho face Juticalpa in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olancho a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Juticalpa 15%, so Olancho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Olancho and 0.8 for Juticalpa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olancho are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.17 for Juticalpa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Olancho vs Juticalpa Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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