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New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:30

New York City FC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

UPCOMING

Nashville SC

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.8%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.6%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 40.0% 2.50 -15.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 45.8% 38.5% 2.60 +19.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 32.0% 33.3% 3.00 -4.0%

BTTS 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Home O1.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City FC1.2

Nashville SC1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.36

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

New York City FC (H) 29.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Nashville SC (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City FC face Nashville SC in USA - MLS on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City FC a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Nashville SC 46%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for New York City FC and 1.5 for Nashville SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.80 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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