Today / Colombia - Liga Femenina / Atlético Nacional W vs La Equidad W

Atlético Nacional W vs La Equidad W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:30

Atlético Nacional W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

La Equidad W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 56% chance

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.7%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-19.4%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-16.3%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.8% — — —

Over 3.5 33.9% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 55.8% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Nacional W2.0

La Equidad W0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO NACIONAL W · PPG 2.33

LA EQUIDAD W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Nacional W (H) 57.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

La Equidad W (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Nacional W face La Equidad W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Nacional W a 57% chance, the draw 21% and La Equidad W 21%, so Atlético Nacional W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atlético Nacional W and 0.7 for La Equidad W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Nacional W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.22 for La Equidad W. This match finished 1-0.

Atlético Nacional W vs La Equidad W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Liga Femenina Predictions