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Comerciantes vs Ayacucho FC Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:15

Comerciantes

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ayacucho FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.0%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-111.3%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.0%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 48.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes1.6

Ayacucho FC0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES · PPG 2.14

AYACUCHO FC · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ayacucho FC (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes face Ayacucho FC in Peru - Segunda División on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Ayacucho FC 24%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Comerciantes and 0.8 for Ayacucho FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Ayacucho FC. This match finished 5-1.

Comerciantes vs Ayacucho FC Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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