Today / Newcastle O. vs Edgeworth E.

Newcastle O. vs Edgeworth E. Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Newcastle O.

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Edgeworth E.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.9%0-27.8%0-36.9%0-4+8.5%1 1-02.6%1-16.9%1-29.0%1-38.0%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.5%2-14.0%2-25.3%2-34.6%2-4+5.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-22.0%3-31.8%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.6% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 68.9% — — —

Over 2.5 73.1% — — —

Over 3.5 52.6% — — —

BTTS 63.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.8%

A 69% / xG 1.2-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.0%

#2 1–3 8.0%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle O.1.2

Edgeworth E.2.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 0.33

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle O. (H) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Edgeworth E. (A) 68.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle O. face Edgeworth E. on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle O. a 15% chance, the draw 17% and Edgeworth E. 69%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Newcastle O. and 2.6 for Edgeworth E. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle O. are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Edgeworth E.. This match finished 1-2.

Newcastle O. vs Edgeworth E. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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