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Elana Toruń vs Wda Świecie Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:08

Elana Toruń

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

UPCOMING

Wda Świecie

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.4%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.5%1-110.7%1-28.9%1-34.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-17.9%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -7.8%

Away win 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

Over 2.5 63.4% 63.7% 1.57 -0.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 43.3% 2.31 -7.1%

BTTS 61.5% 69.9% 1.43 -12.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.1% 1.92 -23.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 53.8% 1.86 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 45% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 6.1%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elana Toruń1.5

Wda Świecie1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELANA TORUŃ · PPG 1.13

WDA ŚWIECIE · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elana Toruń (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.8%

Wda Świecie (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elana Toruń face Wda Świecie in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elana Toruń a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Wda Świecie 45%, so Wda Świecie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Elana Toruń and 1.6 for Wda Świecie (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elana Toruń are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.43 for Wda Świecie.

Elana Toruń vs Wda Świecie Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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