Today / JEF United W vs Beleza W

JEF United W vs Beleza W Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

JEF United W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Beleza W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.4%0-210.5%0-37.8%0-4+7.3%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.1%2-24.6%2-33.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-31.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% — — —

Draw 18.8% — — —

Away win 66.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.3%

A 67% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1✓ 9.4%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JEF United W0.9

Beleza W2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JEF UNITED W · PPG 1.50

BELEZA W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

JEF United W (H) 14.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Beleza W (A) 66.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JEF United W face Beleza W on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JEF United W a 14% chance, the draw 19% and Beleza W 67%, so Beleza W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for JEF United W and 2.2 for Beleza W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JEF United W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Beleza W. This match finished 0-1.

JEF United W vs Beleza W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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