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Kalisz vs Jastrzebie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Kalisz

PPG 0.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jastrzebie

PPG 0.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.79) > Away POOR (0.21)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-15.2%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.9%1-19.7%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-15.7%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 12.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 24.9% — — —

BTTS 40.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.6%

H 67% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalisz1.9

Jastrzebie0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KALISZ · PPG 0.79

JASTRZEBIE · PPG 0.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.79) > Away POOR (0.21)

Win probability 1X2

Kalisz (H) 66.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jastrzebie (A) 12.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalisz face Jastrzebie in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalisz a 67% chance, the draw 21% and Jastrzebie 12%, so Kalisz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kalisz and 0.7 for Jastrzebie (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalisz are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 0.21 for Jastrzebie.

Kalisz vs Jastrzebie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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