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Podbeskidzie vs NKP Podhale Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:30

Podbeskidzie

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

NKP Podhale

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.6%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.5%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +0.7%

Over 2.5 48.8% 60.6% 1.65 -19.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% 38.2% 2.62 -15.4%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 42.5% 57.8% 1.73 -26.5%

Away O1.5 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podbeskidzie1.4

NKP Podhale1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PODBESKIDZIE · PPG 1.94

NKP PODHALE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

Podbeskidzie (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -17.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

NKP Podhale (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podbeskidzie face NKP Podhale in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podbeskidzie a 50% chance, the draw 26% and NKP Podhale 24%, so Podbeskidzie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Podbeskidzie and 1.0 for NKP Podhale (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podbeskidzie are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.13 for NKP Podhale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Podbeskidzie vs NKP Podhale Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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