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Chojniczanka vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:30

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rekord Bielsko

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.7%1-111.4%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 54.1% 1.85 -16.4%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 29.3% 29.9% 3.35 -1.1%

Over 2.5 60.1% 66.7% 1.50 -9.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

BTTS 61.0% 65.4% 1.53 -6.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 59.9% 1.67 -19.7%

Away O1.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 2–0✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chojniczanka1.6

Rekord Bielsko1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.38

REKORD BIELSKO · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Chojniczanka (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

Rekord Bielsko (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka face Rekord Bielsko in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Rekord Bielsko 29%, so Chojniczanka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chojniczanka and 1.3 for Rekord Bielsko (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Rekord Bielsko. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Chojniczanka vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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