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Kalisz vs Unia Skierniewi Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:30

Kalisz

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Unia Skierniewi

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.4%0-29.8%0-36.1%0-4+4.4%1 1-05.6%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.8%2-15.4%2-25.0%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Draw 22.4% 25.3% 3.95 -6.9%

Away win 56.5% 66.7% 1.50 -15.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 62.5% 1.60 -3.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

BTTS 55.3% 57.8% 1.73 -4.3%

Home O1.5 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Away O1.5 56.1% 61.7% 1.62 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.3%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalisz1.0

Unia Skierniewi1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KALISZ · PPG 0.88

UNIA SKIERNIEWI · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Kalisz (H) 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.9%

Unia Skierniewi (A) 56.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalisz face Unia Skierniewi in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalisz a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Unia Skierniewi 56%, so Unia Skierniewi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kalisz and 1.9 for Unia Skierniewi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalisz are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 2.19 for Unia Skierniewi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Kalisz vs Unia Skierniewi Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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