Today / Poland - II Liga - East / Swit Skolwin vs O. Grudziadz

Swit Skolwin vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:30

Swit Skolwin

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

O. Grudziadz

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.2%0-26.0%0-33.9%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.1%1-35.9%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 23.1% 4.33 +38.6%

Draw 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Away win 45.2% 64.5% 1.55 -29.9%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 42.9% 50.0% 2.00 -14.2%

BTTS 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Home O1.5 44.2% 38.2% 2.62 +15.8%

Away O1.5 58.1% 69.4% 1.44 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swit Skolwin1.5

O. Grudziadz2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SWIT SKOLWIN · PPG 1.69

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Swit Skolwin (H) 32.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +38.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

O. Grudziadz (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swit Skolwin face O. Grudziadz in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swit Skolwin a 32% chance, the draw 23% and O. Grudziadz 45%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Swit Skolwin and 2.0 for O. Grudziadz (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swit Skolwin are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.56 for O. Grudziadz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Swit Skolwin vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - II Liga - East Predictions