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Rosengård vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Rosengård

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

UPCOMING

Laholm

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.4%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.3%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 65.4% 1.53 -17.8%

Draw 23.1% 24.4% 4.10 -3.2%

Away win 23.2% 20.0% 5.00 +9.6%

Over 2.5 61.0% 65.4% 1.53 -6.7%

Over 3.5 39.1% 42.6% 2.35 -8.1%

BTTS 59.2% 63.7% 1.57 -7.1%

Home O1.5 60.2% 67.6% 1.48 -10.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.2%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 5.4%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengård2.1

Laholm1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.56

LAHOLM · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosengård (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -17.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.2%

Laholm (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengård face Laholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengård a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Laholm 23%, so Rosengård are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Rosengård and 1.2 for Laholm (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengård are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.90 for Laholm. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%.

Rosengård vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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