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Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 11 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 22:00

Union La Calera

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 49% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+27.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.2%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 32.3% 3.10 +78.9%

Draw 21.8% 32.3% 3.10 -32.4%

Away win 20.5% 44.4% 2.25 -53.9%

Over 2.5 58.0% 45.5% 2.20 +27.6%

Over 3.5 35.6% 23.8% 4.20 +49.5%

BTTS 56.3% 54.1% 1.85 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.3%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union La Calera1.9

Coquimbo Unido1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 2.00

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Union La Calera (H) 57.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +78.9%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -32.4%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 20.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -53.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union La Calera face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union La Calera a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Coquimbo Unido 21%, so Union La Calera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Union La Calera and 1.1 for Coquimbo Unido (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union La Calera are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +78.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions