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Triglav vs Bistrica Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Triglav

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

UPCOMING

Bistrica

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.5%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 23.5% 27.4% 3.65 -8.5%

Away win 24.0% 27.4% 3.65 -7.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 59.0% 65.4% 1.53 -9.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Triglav1.9

Bistrica1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRIGLAV · PPG 1.78

BISTRICA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Triglav (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.5%

Bistrica (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Triglav face Bistrica in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Triglav a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Bistrica 24%, so Triglav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Triglav and 1.1 for Bistrica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Triglav are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.44 for Bistrica.

Triglav vs Bistrica Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions