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Dekani vs Jesenice Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Dekani

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLD ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Jesenice

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.3%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-17.4%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Draw 21.2% 24.4% 4.10 -7.8%

Away win 15.1% 19.6% 5.10 -13.8%

Over 2.5 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dekani2.3

Jesenice0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEKANI · PPG 1.77

JESENICE · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dekani (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.8%

Jesenice (A) 15.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dekani face Jesenice in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dekani a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Jesenice 15%, so Dekani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dekani and 0.8 for Jesenice (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dekani are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.91 for Jesenice. This match finished 0-2.

Dekani vs Jesenice Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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