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Jesenice vs Beltinci Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Jesenice

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Beltinci

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 47.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.0%0-28.3%0-34.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.6%2-25.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 18.5% 5.40 +32.3%

Draw 24.7% 24.4% 4.10 +0.8%

Away win 46.8% 66.7% 1.50 -29.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.5% 38.5% 2.60 -15.5%

BTTS 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Home O1.5 31.2% 28.6% 3.50 +9.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.0%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jesenice1.2

Beltinci1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JESENICE · PPG 0.80

BELTINCI · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Jesenice (H) 28.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +32.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.8%

Beltinci (A) 46.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jesenice face Beltinci in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jesenice a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Beltinci 47%, so Beltinci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jesenice and 1.7 for Beltinci (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jesenice are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.70 for Beltinci. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Jesenice vs Beltinci Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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