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Dravinja vs Triglav Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Dravinja

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Triglav

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 44.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.1%0-28.1%0-33.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 19.0% 5.25 +31.4%

Draw 26.8% 25.0% 4.00 +4.3%

Away win 44.2% 67.6% 1.48 -34.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.0% 2.78 -12.1%

BTTS 52.7% 54.9% 1.82 -4.1%

Home O1.5 31.0% 25.1% 3.98 +23.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 62.5% 1.60 -34.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dravinja1.1

Triglav1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DRAVINJA · PPG 1.30

TRIGLAV · PPG 1.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dravinja (H) 29.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +31.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.3%

Triglav (A) 44.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -34.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dravinja face Triglav in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dravinja a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Triglav 44%, so Triglav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dravinja and 1.5 for Triglav (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dravinja are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.89 for Triglav. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Dravinja vs Triglav Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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