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Ilirija vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Ilirija

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

UPCOMING

Primorje

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.9%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 40.0% 2.50 +41.8%

Draw 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -16.1%

Away win 21.8% 40.0% 2.50 -27.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 56.5% 1.77 +8.3%

Over 3.5 38.7% 33.9% 2.95 +14.2%

BTTS 56.9% 62.5% 1.60 -9.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 45.5% 2.20 +22.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 45.5% 2.20 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.9%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilirija2.0

Primorje1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ILIRIJA · PPG 1.73

PRIMORJE · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ilirija (H) 56.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +41.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.1%

Primorje (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilirija face Primorje in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilirija a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Primorje 22%, so Ilirija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ilirija and 1.1 for Primorje (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilirija are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.07 for Primorje. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.8%.

Ilirija vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions