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Bilje vs Bistrica Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Bilje

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bistrica

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.1%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 45.5% 2.20 +18.6%

Draw 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 22.6% 37.0% 2.70 -23.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.6% 1.90 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.5% 3.08 -3.0%

BTTS 53.0% 60.2% 1.66 -12.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 43.5% 2.30 +12.2%

Away O1.5 29.1% 41.7% 2.40 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bilje1.8

Bistrica1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BILJE · PPG 1.73

BISTRICA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bilje (H) 53.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +18.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Bistrica (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bilje face Bistrica in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bilje a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Bistrica 23%, so Bilje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bilje and 1.0 for Bistrica (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bilje are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.18 for Bistrica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Bilje vs Bistrica Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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