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Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Slovan Ljubljana

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ilirija

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.0%0-26.7%0-34.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.1%1-19.8%1-29.4%1-36.0%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.5%2-34.1%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.0%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Draw 21.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

Away win 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 56.5% 1.77 +11.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.9% 2.95 +15.9%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 38.7% 39.2% 2.55 -1.3%

Away O1.5 56.9% 51.3% 1.95 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.3%

A 50% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1✓ 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovan Ljubljana1.4

Ilirija1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVAN LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.66

ILIRIJA · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Slovan Ljubljana (H) 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.3%

Ilirija (A) 50.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovan Ljubljana face Ilirija in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovan Ljubljana a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Ilirija 50%, so Ilirija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Slovan Ljubljana and 1.9 for Ilirija (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovan Ljubljana are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.33 for Ilirija. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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