Today / Slovenia - 2. SNL / Krka vs Slovan Ljubljana

Krka vs Slovan Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Krka

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Slovan Ljubljana

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.8%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 45.5% 2.20 -14.9%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 34.7% 35.1% 2.85 -1.1%

Over 2.5 50.1% 56.5% 1.77 -11.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.9% 2.95 -10.3%

BTTS 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 48.8% 2.05 -22.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 41.7% 2.40 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krka1.3

Slovan Ljubljana1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KRKA · PPG 1.08

SLOVAN LJUBLJANA · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krka (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.9%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Slovan Ljubljana (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krka face Slovan Ljubljana in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krka a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Slovan Ljubljana 35%, so Krka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Krka and 1.2 for Slovan Ljubljana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krka are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.87 for Slovan Ljubljana. This match finished 2-3.

Krka vs Slovan Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions