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Ilirija vs Rudar Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Ilirija

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rudar

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.7%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.6%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.1%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 46.5% 2.15 +13.5%

Draw 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 23.6% 36.4% 2.75 -21.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 34.3% 32.9% 3.04 +4.3%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 46.1% 2.17 +19.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 40.3% 2.48 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilirija1.9

Rudar1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILIRIJA · PPG 1.52

RUDAR · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ilirija (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +13.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Rudar (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilirija face Rudar in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilirija a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Rudar 24%, so Ilirija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ilirija and 1.1 for Rudar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilirija are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.98 for Rudar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Ilirija vs Rudar Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions