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Unia Swarzędz vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:30

Unia Swarzędz

PPG 0.97 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Lech Poznań II

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.6%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.1%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.7%2-26.7%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 48.8% 2.05 -27.4%

Draw 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 41.3% 36.4% 2.75 +13.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 44.8% 2.23 -9.7%

BTTS 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Home O1.5 41.0% 55.6% 1.80 -26.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 49.5% 2.02 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unia Swarzędz1.5

Lech Poznań II1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIA SWARZĘDZ · PPG 0.97

LECH POZNAŃ II · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unia Swarzędz (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

Lech Poznań II (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unia Swarzędz face Lech Poznań II in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unia Swarzędz a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Lech Poznań II 41%, so Lech Poznań II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Unia Swarzędz and 1.7 for Lech Poznań II (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unia Swarzędz are averaging 0.97 points per game versus 1.40 for Lech Poznań II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Unia Swarzędz vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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