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D. Riestra vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 16 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 20:00

D. Riestra

PPG 0.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Independiente

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.7%0-123.9%0-28.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-19.2%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-02.4%2-11.8%2-20.7%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.2%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.5% 27.0% 3.70 -35.3%

Draw 42.6% 36.0% 2.78 +18.4%

Away win 39.9% 44.2% 2.26 -9.8%

Over 2.5 10.3% 31.3% 3.20 -67.0%

Over 3.5 2.7% 14.3% 7.00 -81.1%

BTTS 16.6% 40.8% 2.45 -59.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob16.6%

A 40% / xG 0.4-0.7 / U2.5 10% / NoBTTS 17%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.7%

#2 0–1 23.9%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Riestra0.4

Independiente0.7

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 10.3% · O3.5 PROB 2.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. RIESTRA · PPG 0.71

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.71), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. Riestra (H) 17.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -35.3%

Draw 42.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +18.4%

Independiente (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Riestra face Independiente in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Riestra a 18% chance, the draw 43% and Independiente 40%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for D. Riestra and 0.7 for Independiente (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 10% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 17% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Riestra are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Independiente. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-0.

D. Riestra vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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