Today / Croatia - Second NL / Uljanik vs Dugo Selo

Uljanik vs Dugo Selo Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Uljanik

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Dugo Selo

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.4%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.5%1-111.2%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.7%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 39.7% 2.52 -20.1%

BTTS 54.6% 62.9% 1.59 -13.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 61.3% 1.63 -18.7%

Away O1.5 32.5% 35.8% 2.79 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uljanik1.7

Dugo Selo1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ULJANIK · PPG 2.06

DUGO SELO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Uljanik (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Dugo Selo (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uljanik face Dugo Selo in Croatia - Second NL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uljanik a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Dugo Selo 24%, so Uljanik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Uljanik and 1.1 for Dugo Selo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uljanik are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.11 for Dugo Selo.

Uljanik vs Dugo Selo Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - Second NL Predictions