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Lucko vs Solin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Lucko

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Solin

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.2% 2.92 -7.7%

BTTS 53.7% 61.0% 1.64 -11.9%

Home O1.5 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.3% 2.61 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lucko1.6

Solin1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUCKO · PPG 1.18

SOLIN · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lucko (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Solin (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lucko face Solin in Croatia - Second NL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lucko a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Solin 26%, so Lucko are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lucko and 1.1 for Solin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lucko are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.48 for Solin.

Lucko vs Solin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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