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Bjelovar vs Trnje Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Bjelovar

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Trnje

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.0%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.4%1-110.4%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.3%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 42.0% 2.38 +5.2%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.2% 2.49 -8.6%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 48.5% 2.06 +0.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 48.3% 2.07 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjelovar1.7

Trnje1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BJELOVAR · PPG 1.26

TRNJE · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bjelovar (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +5.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Trnje (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjelovar face Trnje in Croatia - Second NL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjelovar a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Trnje 32%, so Bjelovar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bjelovar and 1.4 for Trnje (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjelovar are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.09 for Trnje. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Bjelovar vs Trnje Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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