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Križevci vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Križevci

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varteks Varaždin

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.3%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.7%1-111.1%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

Draw 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 22.3% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 35.1% 2.85 -11.9%

BTTS 53.0% 56.2% 1.78 -5.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% — — —

Away O1.5 22.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Križevci1.7

Varteks Varaždin0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KRIŽEVCI · PPG 1.82

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Križevci (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Varteks Varaždin (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Križevci face Varteks Varaždin in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Križevci a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Varteks Varaždin 22%, so Križevci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Križevci and 0.9 for Varteks Varaždin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Križevci are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.17 for Varteks Varaždin. This match finished 3-0.

Križevci vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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