Today / Croatia - Second NL / Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Lucko

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Lucko Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lucko

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.4%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 41.7% 2.40 +4.9%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 29.4% 40.8% 2.45 -16.8%

Over 2.5 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.1% 62.5% 1.60 -13.4%

Home O1.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Away O1.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.1%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 1–2 7.4%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hrvatski Dragovoljac1.6

Lucko1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HRVATSKI DRAGOVOLJAC · PPG 1.13

LUCKO · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Lucko (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hrvatski Dragovoljac face Lucko in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hrvatski Dragovoljac a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Lucko 29%, so Hrvatski Dragovoljac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac and 1.3 for Lucko (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hrvatski Dragovoljac are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.09 for Lucko. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Lucko Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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