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Grobničan Čavle vs Uskok Klis Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Grobničan Čavle

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Uskok Klis

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.1%0-24.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.3%1-110.1%1-28.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.9%3-14.7%3-23.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 34.5% 2.90 +22.1%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.1% 1.75 +10.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 34.5% 2.90 +14.3%

BTTS 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Home O1.5 48.4% 39.2% 2.55 +23.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobničan Čavle1.7

Uskok Klis1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBNIČAN ČAVLE · PPG 1.48

USKOK KLIS · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grobničan Čavle (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +22.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Uskok Klis (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobničan Čavle face Uskok Klis in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobničan Čavle a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Uskok Klis 35%, so Grobničan Čavle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Grobničan Čavle and 1.6 for Uskok Klis (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobničan Čavle are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.39 for Uskok Klis. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Grobničan Čavle vs Uskok Klis Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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