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Uljanik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

Uljanik

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.1%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-110.1%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.1%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 57.1% 1.75 -2.2%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 34.5% 2.90 +6.1%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 57.1% 1.75 -3.9%

Away O1.5 28.4% 31.9% 3.13 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uljanik2.0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULJANIK · PPG 1.87

HRVATSKI DRAGOVOLJAC · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Uljanik (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -2.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uljanik face Hrvatski Dragovoljac in Croatia - Second NL on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uljanik a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Hrvatski Dragovoljac 22%, so Uljanik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Uljanik and 1.0 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uljanik are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.13 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Uljanik vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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