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Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Dekani

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLD ·

UPCOMING

Tabor Sežana

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.5%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 10.0% 10.00 +96.0%

Draw 24.7% 16.0% 6.25 +32.6%

Away win 49.3% 85.5% 1.17 -42.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.7% 2.88 -10.4%

BTTS 49.9% 27.9% 3.58 +78.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 9.3% 10.75 +231.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 72.5% 1.38 -41.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.9%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dekani1.1

Tabor Sežana1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEKANI · PPG 1.51

TABOR SEŽANA · PPG 1.94

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dekani (H) 26.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +96.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +32.6%

Tabor Sežana (A) 49.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -42.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dekani face Tabor Sežana in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dekani a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Tabor Sežana 49%, so Tabor Sežana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dekani and 1.5 for Tabor Sežana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dekani are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.94 for Tabor Sežana. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +231.1%.

Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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