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El Dakhleya vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Second League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 13:30

El Dakhleya

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

UPCOMING

Pharco

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-115.9%0-27.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.6%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.1%2-15.5%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +2.4%

Draw 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

Away win 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

Over 2.5 34.6% 40.0% 2.50 -13.5%

Over 3.5 17.7% 20.0% 5.00 -6.9%

BTTS 42.4% 45.5% 2.20 -6.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 24.7% 4.05 +24.7%

Away O1.5 26.0% 38.3% 2.61 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.4%

D 35% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 0–1 15.9%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 14.6%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Dakhleya0.8

Pharco0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EL DAKHLEYA · PPG 1.18

PHARCO · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Dakhleya (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.4%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.6%

Pharco (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Dakhleya face Pharco in Egypt - Second League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Dakhleya a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Pharco 36%, so Pharco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for El Dakhleya and 0.9 for Pharco (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Dakhleya are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.75 for Pharco. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.7%.

El Dakhleya vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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