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Şimal vs Cəbrayıl Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 13:00

Şimal

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cəbrayıl

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.9%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 29.4% 34.7% 2.88 -9.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.2%

BTTS 55.6% 59.9% 1.67 -7.1%

Home O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Şimal1.5

Cəbrayıl1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ŞIMAL · PPG 1.09

CƏBRAYIL · PPG 0.76

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Şimal (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -2.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Cəbrayıl (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Şimal face Cəbrayıl in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Şimal a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Cəbrayıl 29%, so Şimal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Şimal and 1.2 for Cəbrayıl (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Şimal are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.76 for Cəbrayıl. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Şimal vs Cəbrayıl Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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